January 31, 2004

Stanislaus County health officials recently received a new shipment of influenza vaccinations, and say children and medically fragile people could benefit from a shot even though the flu season has peaked.

The shots are recommended for children 6 months to 23 months old, pregnant women in their second or third trimester, and people with chronic health conditions.

Healthy people who were not able to get a flu shot before supplies ran out in December also may be eligible, although supplies are limited.

"We're still getting people in," said Floreida Quiaoit, supervising public health nurse with the county Health Services Agency.

She noted that county health clinics gave 9,800 flu shots this fall, up from 7,000 the year before.

Predictions this fall of a stronger-than-usual flu season, made by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, sent people flocking to flu shot clinics in record numbers in October and November.

Supplies ran out because manufacturers made 87 million doses this year. Last year, the manufacturers made 95 million doses but only 83 million were used, according to the CDC.

Dr. Roger Baxter, an infectious disease specialist with Kaiser Permanente, said the flu reached epidemic proportions in Northern California, peaked in late December and early January, and now is on the decline.

Kaiser's health care workers administered 800,000 flu shots this fall, up from 500,000 last year, Baxter said.

At the peak of flu season, Kaiser's doctors confirmed nearly 400 cases of influenza each week, up from 50 cases a week during the average flu season, he said.

"It's just not like anything I've ever seen," said Baxter, who has been tracking influenza rates for eight years.

Patients must have jammed their doctors' offices or after-hour care facilities, because spokeswomen for local hospitals said their emergency rooms did not see huge increases in influenza cases.

"Basically, the worst is over," said Anita Talkington of Memorial Medical Center in Modesto. "December is typically the high volume. This month, the impact is pretty much over."

"I think it will prompt more people to have a flu shot next year," said Pennie Rorex of Emanuel Medical Center in Turlock.

Nationwide, 10 percent to 20 percent of people get the flu each year. About 114,000 people are hospitalized each year for flu-related complications and 36,000 die.

Up to 90 percent effective

The effectiveness of this year's flu shots remains an open question. That's because the inactive influenza viruses in the vaccination are different from a new strain of influenza prevalent this year.

When there is a good match, vaccinations generally prevent the flu in 70 percent to 90 percent of healthy people under 65.

Baxter said doctors at the CDC, who track genetic modifications in viruses, do the best they can to determine which strain of the flu will hit. But they can't predict the future.

"They're as good as it gets," Baxter said, "and they're taking a guess."

Bee staff writer Susan Herendeen can be reached at 578-2338 or sherendeen@modbee.com.

Reprinted by permission of the Modesto Bee.